The unofficial AFC Rushden & Diamonds messageboard

12 games left to see where we can finish and the dream of the play-offs is still very much alive !!

Justin has suggested that 80 points "should" be enough to secure us a play-off spot, possibly 81.........mmmmmmmm, thats still a long way off.

In our last 12 games we have secured 23 points. With the Chester points to be deducted we'll be left on 56 points - 24/25 short of Justin's target. That means we'll have to improve on our already pretty impressive form to hit his target.

Put simply, we need to win 8 of our last 12 to hit the target - then we need to see what those around us do. If we can beat the scum, Mansfield, Oxford and Luton I think the net result (i.e. taking points off our nearest rivals) might see us there, but its still a hell of an ask of a small squad.

I'm going to sit firmly on the fence at the moment, I think it's going to be a hell of a close call. My heart says we can do it, but suspensions and injuries that will befall us make me think it might be just out of our reach..............or is it??? Ohhhhh I'm really in two minds !! ;)

There is no doubting what JE has achieved with this squad is exceptional, we have the capability to pick up 9 points towards our tally in our next 3 games - ALL are VERY winnable, then comes a more sterner test - Oxford, AFC Dons, the scum and Crawley who are on good form of late, 2nd in the current form table behind us just on goal difference !!!

The more I look at it, the more I think that last game of the season against Luton could be as monumental as that title decider against Hartlepool................we're gunna do this ain't we???!!!! But its gunna be tight !!!!

I still think we will just miss out. Lets face it, i know we had 10 men for the vast majority of the game today, but penalty aside we created absolutely nothing. Not a serious chance anyway. We haven't scored from open play since Wolleaston scored against Stevenage.

I'd love to be wrong of course. But only if Lee Tomlin starts playing anything like he was a month ago will we get the play-offs IMO.

BartonRaz wrote:I still think we will just miss out. Lets face it, i know we had 10 men for the vast majority of the game today, but penalty aside we created absolutely nothing. Not a serious chance anyway. We haven't scored from open play since Wolleaston scored against Stevenage.

I'd love to be wrong of course. But only if Lee Tomlin starts playing anything like he was a month ago will we get the play-offs IMO.

I keep thinking that way, then I look at the other sides around us, none of them are class acts, probably the best side I've seen are AFC Dons. We were VERY unlucky against Oxford, and when you look at the sides we've played recently we've really stepped up to the plate and done the business.

Goals have dried up a tad, but we're still not letting them in are we? We've not conceded a goal through open play since beating H&YFC 1-6 !! The glass is still half full here - we ARE going to do it - as the banner above says........BELIEVE !!!!

Champions.

I certainly believe a realistic target is 3rd place.
Before we went down to 10 men last night I thought some of our approach play was excellent and had we kept 11 on the field we would have went on to score again. I also thought Edinburgh made the right call at half time by going 4 across the centre of the park and 1 up front.

CountHermanDeBanker wrote:Champions.

Thats the stuff of dreams now - I think the title is just a very distant dream.

When you look at the games each of the sides at the top end of the table, Luton are the side that have the "easiest" run in. During the last games they have to play just Stevenage and us, all their other games will be against sides lower down the table.

Stevenage have a tough run in - they have to play form side Crawley twice, Oxford, Luton, AFC Dons and York - a tough ask !! York have just Mansfield, AFC Dons and Stevenage. Oxford, who are really in the driving seat, have to play the scum, us, Mansfield and Stevenage, while the scum have Oxford, mansfield, us and Crawley - BUT 8 of their remaining games are at home and they have been dreadful at the Rockinghorse all season. AFC Dons have yet to play Crawley, York, us, Stevenage and Mansfield. We have quite a tough run in, Oxford, AFC Dons, the scum, Crawley, Mansfield and Luton.

I know you can only beat whats in front of you, but looking at the remaining fixtures how I think about it is that these sides will be taking points off of eachother big time, but on paper at least, Luton look like they will have the best opportunity to capitalise on the situation - that said I still think they'll drop enough points to teams lower down the league.

In terms of the title I think the match between Oxford and Stevenage will settle it. If Oxford win thats it, done and dusted, I certainly think they'll have enough in the tank to do it, if Stevenage win then that may well rattle Oxford and who knows.

I say it'll end pretty much as it is and we'll be meeting York in the semi-finals and Stevenage will be taking on Luton who I think will beat the scum to the last spot.

PigmanRDFC wrote:

CountHermanDeBanker wrote:Champions.

Thats the stuff of dreams now - I think the title is just a very distant dream.

When you look at the games each of the sides at the top end of the table, Luton are the side that have the "easiest" run in. During the last games they have to play just Stevenage and us, all their other games will be against sides lower down the table.

Stevenage have a tough run in - they have to play form side Crawley twice, Oxford, Luton, AFC Dons and York - a tough ask !! York have just Mansfield, AFC Dons and Stevenage. Oxford, who are really in the driving seat, have to play the scum, us, Mansfield and Stevenage, while the scum have Oxford, mansfield, us and Crawley - BUT 8 of their remaining games are at home and they have been dreadful at the Rockinghorse all season. AFC Dons have yet to play Crawley, York, us, Stevenage and Mansfield. We have quite a tough run in, Oxford, AFC Dons, the scum, Crawley, Mansfield and Luton.

I know you can only beat whats in front of you, but looking at the remaining fixtures how I think about it is that these sides will be taking points off of eachother big time, but on paper at least, Luton look like they will have the best opportunity to capitalise on the situation - that said I still think they'll drop enough points to teams lower down the league.

In terms of the title I think the match between Oxford and Stevenage will settle it. If Oxford win thats it, done and dusted, I certainly think they'll have enough in the tank to do it, if Stevenage win then that may well rattle Oxford and who knows.

I say it'll end pretty much as it is and we'll be meeting York in the semi-finals and Stevenage will be taking on Luton who I think will beat the scum to the last spot.

Agree 100% with you Pigman. I think we definately have a shot at the play-offs.

My heart says hopefully- 3rd/4th

My head says realistically - 5th

Just have to hope the other teams results go our way aswell as winning all our games, or as many as possible anyway

mattreddan wrote:My heart says hopefully- 3rd/4th

My head says realistically - 5th

Just have to hope the other teams results go our way aswell as winning all our games, or as many as possible anyway

Either way who cares? As long as either your head or heart are right! ;)

In the past 7 seasons (years in which the conference has staged playoffs) the average number of points per game required to beat the team finishing in 6th place (i.e. their tally + 1 point) is 1.68 points per game.

Over 44 games thats means the target would be 74 points.

The average number of points per game of the sides finishing in 5th place (which is perhaps a better measure) is 1.71 points per game which over 44 games would be 75 points.

If you just take the number 81 points as a target for a 46 game season, over 44 games that becomes 77.47 (so lets say 78) points.

So I'd say we don't need 80 or 81 points but somewhere in the region 74-78. Lets hope I'm right