2 wins away? 3 to be sure?
Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2010 9:22 am
Got the day off, so over a nice coffee I've just been looking at the nearest rivals to us and trying to predict how many points will secure us a play-off spot.
Assuming we beat the scum tomorrow, Crawley and Mansfield (which I think we will) I reckon the individual points haul of our rivals, looking at the games they have left, will be:
Scum (being VERY generous here) = 12 from 18 points available = 72 points
AFC Dons = 14 from 24 = 71 points
Mansfield = 13 from 18 = 71
Crawley = 13 from 18 = 68
That leaves us (currently on 67 points) just 6 points off guaranteeing at least a 5th place finish. Assuming (as I have done above) that we will beat 3 out of 4 of these rivals, we'd already be there by the time we play Mansfield. I think a realistic target for us to gain a play-off spot is now 75 points, secure that and we'll be there I reckon.
I know its dangerous to think like this, one defeat could dent confidence and make us nervous (bit like the nervous 90's in cricket) but I look at the performance on Saturday, hard, uncompromising, full of hard work and effort, and I can't see us not winning 3 out of 7 matches - do that by taking points off our nearest rivals and we make the task easier.
Forget 1st, 2nd or 3rd spots, 5th will do me !! Gain the points on the board early enough and we could afford to rest a few players in the last 2 games, get all those aches and pains sorted before the semi's. I hope Stevenage, Oxford and Luton really stand toe to toe and battle it out all the way, making it a really close and tense finale, because whoever misses out will be deflated and mentally battered and will really have to pick themselves up for the play-offs, not an easy task when you've missed out on the ultimate prize so narrowly.
I'm fully aware it could all blow up in our faces yet, but I can almost taste the play-offs now, it'd be cruel (and take a monumental effort on behalf of our rivals) to see us ousted from the top 5 places now.
Assuming we beat the scum tomorrow, Crawley and Mansfield (which I think we will) I reckon the individual points haul of our rivals, looking at the games they have left, will be:
Scum (being VERY generous here) = 12 from 18 points available = 72 points
AFC Dons = 14 from 24 = 71 points
Mansfield = 13 from 18 = 71
Crawley = 13 from 18 = 68
That leaves us (currently on 67 points) just 6 points off guaranteeing at least a 5th place finish. Assuming (as I have done above) that we will beat 3 out of 4 of these rivals, we'd already be there by the time we play Mansfield. I think a realistic target for us to gain a play-off spot is now 75 points, secure that and we'll be there I reckon.
I know its dangerous to think like this, one defeat could dent confidence and make us nervous (bit like the nervous 90's in cricket) but I look at the performance on Saturday, hard, uncompromising, full of hard work and effort, and I can't see us not winning 3 out of 7 matches - do that by taking points off our nearest rivals and we make the task easier.
Forget 1st, 2nd or 3rd spots, 5th will do me !! Gain the points on the board early enough and we could afford to rest a few players in the last 2 games, get all those aches and pains sorted before the semi's. I hope Stevenage, Oxford and Luton really stand toe to toe and battle it out all the way, making it a really close and tense finale, because whoever misses out will be deflated and mentally battered and will really have to pick themselves up for the play-offs, not an easy task when you've missed out on the ultimate prize so narrowly.
I'm fully aware it could all blow up in our faces yet, but I can almost taste the play-offs now, it'd be cruel (and take a monumental effort on behalf of our rivals) to see us ousted from the top 5 places now.