Points Per Game & Possible Promotion....

[BartonRaz]

There's been talk of the possibility of promotion this season with gaps opening up higher in the pyramid. The spreadsheet below is a little hard to follow but it seems there's going to be 14 promotion places on offer from Step 5 this season, of which 5 are already filled. 6 teams have resigned from Step 4 or above (Hinckley, Vauxhall Motors, Eastwood, Wakefield, Cammell Laird & Thatcham) but it seems they're going to reward failure and reprieve teams rather than open up extra promotion spots.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv? ... ring&pli=1

It looks like nobody is going to be promoted from the Sussex County League so that'll free up a spot elsewhere. The Eastern Counties League have only one applicant (Brightlingsea Regent) but it's a 5-horse race for the title in that league so they're by no means certain to finish in the top 3. There are also 3 other leagues that don't have any clubs that have announced they've passed the ground grading (although they may have done).

Assuming additional promotion places are offered on a points per game basis, and assuming we beat S&L Corby next week, we're currently 8th nationally amongst sides that aren't top of their leagues AND have applied for promotion. 4th amongst those that have passed ground grading. PPG correct at time of writing.

Sholing - 2.472 (no news on ground grading).
Wantage Town - 2.400 (passed ground grading).
Haringey Borough - 2.343 (passed ground grading).
Enfield Town - 2.343 (no news on ground grading).
Ashford United - 2.300 (passed ground grading).
Ampthill - 2.293 (no news on ground grading).
Spennymoor - 2.275 (no news on ground grading).
AFC Rushden & Diamonds - 2.250 (passed ground grading).

If we had have beaten PNS and Desborough rather than losing to them, we'd be on 2.416....

[Formic]

Thanks for popping your head above the parapet on this one - I know a few of us have been doing some quiet calculations in the background.

I think you can drop Sholing from that list, as they will be the automatic promotion team from their league even if they don't win it (as Alresford haven't applied).
Spennymoor are also likely to be the automatic team by winning their league, and the team that would then appear in your list, Celtic Nation would be below us in the list. If Spennymoor lose all of their games in hand so they don't win the league, their PPG will drop anyway.
Both Haringey and Enfield are in the same league - I'm not sure they'd promote 3 from the same league.
Ashford have since dropped points, and are now on 2.226 with a max of 2.25 if they win their last game.
Runcorn Linnets need to be added to the list - currently 2.244 with a max of 2.26.

Note that Ampthill would drop below us if they lose their last game and we beat S&L.

[BartonRaz]

Sholing were voluntarily demoted from Step 4 last season. Given the success they've had in the Vase would they accept promotion if offered? Similarly Spennymoor have topped the Northern League previously and not taken promotion, I wonder what's so different this season.

[sussexdiamond]

I would be very surprised if Sholing did not take promotion if offered. They were voluntarily demoted to help improve their finances. well they must have done that as they are favourites to win FA Vase and pick up about £35k.

If we had finished second I would have been keen for us to take our place in Step 4, but as it is I think another season, albeit a hard one, in UCL will be beneficial and we may have a chance to win the Vase again.

plus it would be somewhat hypocritical of me to claim promotion when finishing only third as I am a big critic of 2nd,3rd and 4th being given places in the Champions League.

[UttoDiamond]

Think this list of teams already relegated / expunged / resigning is more helpful, and I'm afraid as you'll see it doesn't seem like there will be any chance of a second team from the UCL being promoted. (Nicked from Non League Matters Forum).

(Relegation spots in brackets)

Step 1:

Conference (4) - Hyde, Tamworth & Dartford
Final place between Hereford United and Chester (unless Aldershot lost by 7 goal margin to Hereford in final game!)

Step 2:

Conf North (2) - Vauxhall Motors (resigning) & Workington
So Histon to survive in 21st?

Conf South (3) - Dorchester & Tonbridge Angels
Last place between Maidenhead, Whitehawk, Hayes & Yeading and Chelmsford

Step 3:

NPL Premier (4) - Droylsden, Stafford Rangers, Stockbridge Steels & Frickley Ath

Southern Premier (3) - Hinckley United (expunged) & Bedford Town, Bashley, AFC Totton [reprieve?]

Isthmian Premier (4) - Cray Wanderers and Carshalton Atheltic
So two more from Thamesmead Town, Wingate & Finchely and East Thurrock Utd

Step 4: (dependant on reprieves across Steps)

NPL South (2) - Eastwood Town (expunged), Kidsgrove Athletic
Other relegation spot between Bedworth Utd, Market Drayton, Brigg and Lincoln Utd

NPL North (2) - Cammell Laird ?(resigning at end of season) Wakefield (resigning) Osset Albion [one reprieve?]

SL1-SW (2) - Thatcham Town (resigning) & Guildford City
Fleet Town reprieve?

SL1C (2) - Ashford Town Middx & Chertsey

IL1N - (3) Erith and Belvedere, Waltham Forest & Wroxham

IL1S (3) - Eastbourne Town, Crawley Down Gatwick & Redhill

Vauxhalls resignation at level 2 will reprieve either frickley or wingate and Finchley (both currently same points with one game to go) dependent on ppg - definitely not afc totton who have the worst ppg of the 3 teams in the top relegation spots.

Vauxhalls resignation also reprieves redhill at step 4

[BartonRaz]

Maybe I'm being stupid (I probably am), but how will the teams being relegated affect any possible promotion? The above post suggests it's lessening our chances.

[Bob's Bitch]

The policy is to reprieve at Step 4, rather than promote more Step 5 teams. Because of this IMO there's no chance of promotion and it's quite clear as well.

[BartonRaz]

The policy is to reprieve at Step 4, rather than promote more Step 5 teams. Because of this IMO there's no chance of promotion and it's quite clear as well.

I was thinking more in terms of the 14 promotion places not being filled by eligible clubs rather than us benefitting from higher placed teams resigning.

[UttoDiamond]

Updated spreadsheet here:



Twelve teams almost certainly going up as either champions or highest placed team in top three with ground grading and have applied.

We're probably fighting for two extra spots on PPG, and we're currently about fifth or sixth, although some teams haven't confirmed ground grading, or completed their league yet.

Need some results to go for us in final games and for teams to fail ground grading.

[BartonRaz]

7 teams now confirmed as promoted - Hanwell Town, Great Wakering Rovers, South Park, Whyteleafe, Spennymoor Town, Tividale, Spalding United & Larkhall Athletic.